162 - (Pena's+Upton's strikeouts)/2
The formula wil be soon on the wikipedia.
As I said back in the spring ... probably 81 to 85 wins ... BUT ... if anything significant went south ... winning 81 might become a challenge ... as well as avoiding 4th or 5th place in the AL East!
If the starting pitching (excepting Price) can become more consistent ... and if the bullpen remains as good as it was during the first half ... they might win 86 or 87 and still make a run at the second wildcard slot at some point ... IF ... they play as they did today ... rather than how they played last night!
Pena already has 120 strikeouts ... and he's going to end up w-a-y beyond his usual 155 to 160! If he keeps playing as regularly as he's been ... he's definitely going to crack the 200 barrier!
I haven't looked it up ... but the Rays may be on the road to a MLB team total strikeout record!
As a person ... Pena just seems to be a truly special kind of guy ... truly one-in-a-million ... but ... I can't believe they kept him for the entire 2010 season hitting .195 ... and I'm even more surprised that there's a "second-time around" with that same .195 ... while he's also heading towards breaking the 200 barrier in strikeouts! Even with his defensive abilities ... it's still just inexplicable to me. (?)
At the least ... I'd let Matsui and Conrad go ... I'd bring Anderson and Wrigley up from Durham and give both a chance at playing first ... DH'ing ... and then playing spot centerfield and rightfield ... and I'd give Pena Matsui's seat in the dugout as the very, v-e-r-y occasional pinch-hitter.
Beyond that ... and sometimes I might actually give him credit for it ... Maddon frequently seems to get overly-sentimental about some of his favorites when it's past the time to have cut them loose!
Casey, since ST I've said 85! I'm startin to wonder if maybe that number's a little 'lofty'?